Аnalysis of a long-term clinico-epidemiologic study of cranio-cerebral trauma and prognostication of its trend in adult population of Donetsk city

Authors

  • S. Semisalov Gorkiy Donetsk National Medical University, Donetsk, Ukraine

Keywords:

черепно-мозговая травма, клинико-эпидемиологическое исследование, информационные технологии.

Abstract

Medic-CCT information system allowed us to conduct a clinico-epidemiologic study of craniocerebral trauma (CCT) over a period of 5 years in adult population of Donetsk. In all 12318 cases of referral to Donetsk district neurosurgical ctntre were studied. Together with rhe Institute of applied mathematics and mechanics, Ukranian National Academy of sciences, and Donetsk state Technical University a mathematical model of CCT was devised based on the collected database and was later used to prognosticate the trend of the traumatic process in the year 2000. Prognostication error with the use of “Statistica” program constituted 0.8% (with mathematico-statistical methods the error was as high as 9%). Further enlargement of the database will increase the accuracy of prognostication, which in turn will make planning of Medicare provision to patients with CCT more effective.

References

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3. Льюис К.Д. Методы прогнозирования экономических показателей / Пер. с англ. и предисл. Е.З.Демиденко. — М.: Финансы и статистика, 1986. — 133 с.

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How to Cite

Semisalov, S. Аnalysis of a long-term clinico-epidemiologic study of cranio-cerebral trauma and prognostication of its trend in adult population of Donetsk city. Ukrainian Neurosurgical Journal, (4), 48–50. Retrieved from https://theunj.org/article/view/94566

Issue

No. 4 (2002)

Section

Original articles

License

Copyright (c) 2002 S. Semisalov

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